RERUNS: Resimulating NFL History, Episode 7: The 2017-18 NFL Season

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To recap the last few seasons, the young quarterbacks have begun the full takeover with the Bengals’ Zack Bruening and the Raiders’ Cody Beasley winning two of the last three MVPs. Beasley also has himself a Super Bowl championship, making him the arguably the best fifth-round pick in recent memory.

But even though they, along with Minnesota’s Corey Williams and Washington’s Carter Murphy, have emerged as top-10 passers, and Peyton Manning officially called it quits, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will not go down quietly. They headlined an underwhelming but still dramatic Super Bowl last year with the Packers coming out on top.

Perhaps most surprisingly, we have yet to see a single repeat champion in these six seasons. The playoff teams are pretty constant, but different powers rise among that limited crop each year. Is this the year that Seattle and Connor Casteel take the leap? Can Murphy cut down on the 20-pick seasons and become more than this timeline’s Jameis Winston? Does LaCraig Calloway have a 2,000-rushing-yard season in him?

We find out next with the 2017-18 NFL season.

Past Results

2011-12 Super Bowl Champs: Chargers

2012-13 Super Bowl Champs: Steelers

2013-14 Super Bowl Champs: Falcons

2014-15 Super Bowl Champs: Raiders

2015-16 Super Bowl Champs: Chiefs

2016-17 Super Bowl Champs: Packers

2017-18 NFL Results

	Sim Result	Real Life Result
NFL MVP	Connor Casteel	Tom Brady
OPOY	Connor Casteel	Todd Gurley
DPOY	Haloti Ngata	Aaron Donald
OROY	Brody Cemento	Alvin Kamara
DROY	Chris Beck	Marshon Lattimore
Coach of Year	Pete Carroll	Sean McVay
Best Record	Seahawks (13-3)	3-Way Tie (13-3)
AFC Champ	Chargers	Patriots
NFC Champ	Seahawks	Eagles
SB Champ	Chargers	Eagles
Top Passer	Carter Murphy (4,395)	Tom Brady (4,577)
Top Rusher	LaCraig Calloway (1,624)	Kareem Hunt (1,327)
Top Receiver	Mike Williams (1,605)	Antonio Brown (1,533)
Sack Leader	Haloti Ngata (19)	Chandler Jones (17)
Int. Leader	3-Way Tie (8)	2-Way Tie (8)

The Sim Season

Coaching Changes

BUF: Ken Whisenhunt replaces Sean Payton (lol)

DEN: Tom Coughlin replaces Ron Rivera

JAX: Ron Rivera replaces Regan Danahy

NYG: Eddie Luca replaces Tom Coughlin

Retirements

Nick Barnett
Dallas Clark
Asante Samuel
Anquan Boldin
Shaun O’Hara
Wes Welker
Nnamdi Asomugha
Brett Keisel
Troy Polamalu
Justin Smith

Roster Moves

The big move this offseason was the Cowboys releasing former first-round QB and Rookie of the Year Kyler McRoy after just three years. The Colts, moving on from Matt Cassel, snatched him up. Dallas replaced him with a washed-up veteran, as teams seem to do with shocking regularity these days. Meanwhile, another team with an aging vet at QB pushed him out in favor of another aging vet. The Dolphins, on the other hand, released Eli Manning and turned the reins over to Benton Gordon, the fourth overall pick in 2015.

Bears sign Logan Mankins
Bills sign Jonathan Vilma, Amari Spievey
Cardinals sign Domata Peko, Jared Allen, Mike DeVito
Colts sign Lance Briggs, LaRon Landry, Kyler McRoy
Cowboys sign Michael Vick
Jets sign Matt Cassel, Miles Austin, Pierre Garcon, Santonio Holmes
Panthers sign Will Smith
Patriots sign Brandon Albert, Robert Mathis
Raiders sign Antoine Bethea, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Ryan Williams
Saints sign Elvis Dumervil
Steelers sign Vernon Davis, David Stewart, T.J. Ward
Texans sign Johnathan Joseph, Cortland Finnegan, Ben Roethlisberger
Titans sign Sebastian Vollmer
Vikings give Corey Williams $100 million, sign Jordan Shipley, Paul Posluszny

Rookies

The Lions traded back two spots from five to seven, picking up a third-rounder in the process. The Steelers used the pick to grab Big Ben’s replacement.

Top-Five Picks

Jaguars select LT Quay Palmer, Oklahoma
Falcons select CB Jamarian Pittman, California
Broncos select LB JaMarcus Charles, UConn
Bills select FS Jameel Reve, Notre Dame
Steelers select QB Brendon Arnold, Tennessee

Arnold and Conner Clark were the only quarterbacks to go in round 1. Clark, a strapping 6-foot-4, 234 pound Nebraska grad, went to the Bears. Arnold, 78 overall, is Pittsburgh’s starter in his rookie season, as is Brody Cemento, a second-round pick for the Cardinals and an 82 overall.

High-Profile Free Agents Entering Season

Shane Lechler
Tony Romo
Darren McFadden
LeSean McCoy
Eli Manning

99 Overalls

Tyre Myrick
Clay Matthews
JaMarkus Cline (fifth-year FS for Chiefs, zero Pro Bowls)
Wes Butrico (fourth-year TE for Washington, two Pro Bowls)

Top Teams

After a couple years of single-digit-win teams, including some at 7-9, making up the majority of playoff teams, at least we have some more power up top. Eight teams finished 10-6 or better, though only two had 11 wins or more: The Seahawks and Saints. Seattle was king thanks to dominant third-year quarterback Connor Casteel. (P.S. We have high-def webcam screen shots now!)

They averaged almost four points a game more than any other team in the league and were the only team to top 30 points a game. That was what pushed them to a 13-3 record despite a defense that ranked towards the bottom in scoring. The Saints, the No. 2 offense, were the only other 11-win team, aided also by a 12th-ranked defense.

The Giants, Cowboys and Bengals led the way on defense, each allowing fewer than 20 points a game. Dallas and Cincinnati won their divisions because of it, while the Giants just missed the postseason at 8-8. That 266 points for was the lowest of any team by a mile, so the only reason the Giants competed at all was because of a great defense.

Cincinnati, while only winning 10 games, claimed the title as most balanced team, as they ranked third in scoring defense and scoring offense. They went into the playoffs as the three seed, but on paper, they looked to be the best in the AFC.

Worst Teams

Philadelphia being miserable isn’t a total shock. They lacked offensive talent and the defense was nowhere near good enough to compensate. But the Colts and Packers at the bottom of the table was astonishing. The Packers were the defending champs — beating the Patriots who also missed the playoffs this year — but finished this season with the worst scoring defense in football by a mile. So while Aaron Rodgers and the offense were OK, the bad defense took them out. As for the Colts, the move for the young former Cowboy, Kyler McRoy, did not pay off as their offense was bottom-10.

Top Players

Quarterbacks

The usual suspects at the top of the passing list: youngsters Carter Murphy, Zack Bruening, Cody Beasley and Corey Williams, with some Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers thrown in. But the new name there in the mix is Connor Casteel. Casteel (and his chiseled jaw line) took off with a league-leading 37 touchdowns against just 12 picks, leading the league’s most explosive offense. Bruening and Williams put up arguably better numbers, but Casteel took home MVP due to Seattle’s team success. Also, he’s literally Bo Callahan:

Running Backs

The NFL running back position belongs to LaCraig Calloway. The 2013 No. 1 pick won his third straight rushing title and added another 284 and two touchdowns receiving. The Jets’ Donel Haynes gave him a run for his money, but Calloway keeps the streak alive and the Chargers remain a good team despite being built around a running back.

Receivers

Mike Williams — the younger Buccaneers version — took off in his eighth year, the only receiver with over 1,500 yards. He also finished just one touchdown behind Oakland’s Parker Dunkley for the lead there, so he was the class of the position in 2017. That said, A.J. Green, who has made seven straight Pro Bowls but has consistently been a bit on the fringe as a top receiver, led in catches and finished second in yards and touchdowns.

Defense

The top-three sack guys this year were all interior guys. Haloti Ngata, historically a tackle but a 3-4 end in this game, recorded a whopping 19 sacks, making him the Aaron Donald of this timeline. He took home easy Defensive Player of the Year honors.

Three guys — Pittsburgh’s Kalen Norris, Seattle’s Tavon Austin and New England’s Devin McCourty — tied for the interception lead with eight. Only Austin, however, finished as a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year.

Rookie Report

Brody Cemento, Arizona’s second-round quarterback, took home Offensive Rookie of the Year, beating out No. 5 pick Brendon Arnold. Neither did anything special; they combined for 44 touchdowns, 39 interceptions and 6.314 yards. But they’re quarterbacks, so you know. Raiders running back Lamont Hopkins ran for over 1,000 yards and the Raiders actually made the playoffs, so he would have been a good option. Seattle receiver Acey Sumler caught seven touchdowns and had 1,031 yards in the best offense in the league, another good option. But no, mediocre quarterbacks for the win.

Defensive Rookie of the Year went to Chris Beck, a first-round linebacker for the Bills. He had 144 tackles and 8 1/2 sacks so it’s hard to argue with that decision. That said, Browns linebacker Parker Davis had 148 tackles and 11 1/2 sacks so I’m not totally sure what made Beck a much stronger candidate.

Of the top-five picks, it was a mixed bag. All five started every single game for their respective teams, but the only standouts were Quay Palmer, who played left tackle all season, and JaMarcus Charles, who record over 100 tackles. The rest were just sort of there, except for Brandon Arnold, who was terrible.

The Playoffs

Seed	AFC	NFC
1	Chargers (10-6)	Seahawks (13-3)
2	Dolphins (10-6)	Saints (11-5)
3	Bengals (10-6)	Lions (10-6)
4	Titans (7-9)	Cowboys (10-6)
5	Raiders (10-6)	Bears (9-7)
6	Chiefs (10-6)	Rams (9-7)

Wild Card Round

Lions defeat Rams 27-24

Raiders defeat Titans 13-10

Cowboys defeat Bears 23-22

Bengals defeat Chiefs 31-17

What a whirlwind of drama in round 1. The Lions beat the Rams with a Calvin Johnson touchdown just after the two-minute warning, the Raiders won with a 52-yards touchdown in the final minutes (those yards accounted for over 20% of their total yardage for that game) and the Cowboys held off the Bears when Chicago went for 2 and the win and failed. The only game without drama was Cincinnati’s handling of the Chiefs, a game which featured three touchdowns by running back JoVanta Noel.

Divisional Round

Seahawks defeat Cowboys 33-13

Chargers defeat Raiders 37-31 (OT)

Dolphins defeat Bengals 45-28

Lions defeat Saints 21-17

I honestly think this is the most scoring in a playoff round yet. Seattle’s win was by far the most impressive and Casteel proved he was for real with 383 yards and three touchdowns on 47 attempts. The Chargers, on the other hand, needed three LaCraig Calloway touchdown despite outgaining the Raiders by 150. They sealed the deal when Calloway scored from 42 yards out in overtime.

The Dolphins demolished the Bengals in the traditional sense, outgaining them by over 200 yards, but a pick-six and kick return touchdown kept the game close until the fourth. Then Benton Gordon put the game away with his third and fourth touchdown passes.

The only low-scoring game was also the most dramatic, arguably. The Lions were down 17-7 entering the fourth, but they had a 95-yard touchdown run to bring it within one score, then Matt Stafford found Calvin Johnson with under a minute left to win it. It was the second week in a row the Lions won in the final minutes with a Johnson touchdown.

Conference Championships

Chargers defeat Dolphins 23-20

Seahawks defeat Lions 26-10

The Chargers have the chance to be the first repeat champion, but this time it is coming on the back of all-world running back. Calloway had 100 yards again, though he didn’t score. In fact, the Chargers only scored one touchdown and kicked five field goals to win. Against Seattle, that is likely not going to fly.

… Because Casteel and the Seahawks have no cracks right now. He threw two more touchdowns with no picks, putting Seattle up by as much as 20. Their defense is also coming through in a big way. If they find a way to close this season out with a Super Bowl win, the 2017 Seahawks will lead the charge as the most dominant single-season team of the sims thus far.

Super Bowl

This was the most bonkers game of all time. The Seahawks were far and away the better team, outgaining the Chargers 368 to 213. Two hundred and thirteen total yards. And yet, because of costly mistakes, the Seahawks had to scrap every step of the way.

For the first time all year, Casteel had a rough go. The Seahawks put it all on him: 40 pass attempts while DeShawn Terrell only ran 19 times. But Casteel threw a pick-six in the first quarter and failed to close out drives in the second quarter. Exchanges of field goals put the game at 13-6 San Diego despite the Seahawks dominating both sides of the ball, yardage-wise.

You’ll notice in the screen shot the difference in the game: Turnover differential. Five turnovers for the Seahawks compared to one for the Chargers. Three of them came on Casteel interceptions, his first picks of the postseason, and the Chargers converted them into points; 23 to be exact.

I cannot stress enough how much better Seattle was. Seven-for-fourteen on third downs compared for 4-for-16. Twenty-one first downs to 13. More possession time. Held LaCraig Calloway to 77 yards and Philip Rivers to 117 and a 40.3 rating. But the turnovers killed them. Casteel threw a couple second-half touchdowns, but threw a pick in the final minutes to seal the win for the Chargers. Appropriately, safety Devrin Moore took home MVP honors for taking the opening interception to the house and setting the tone of the game.

Congrats to the Chargers, our first repeat champions.

Chargers defeat Seahawks 23-20

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