RERUNS: Resimulating NFL History, Episode 8: The 2018-19 NFL Season

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In last episode, the San Diego Chargers became the first team to win a second sim Super Bowl, doing so despite miserable play from Philip Rivers. It appears that generation of quarterbacks is finally out the door with many of them bouncing between teams, a few of them retiring and a couple remaining unsigned. Really, the only guys left are Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees.

The new wave of quarterbacks has fully taken hold, spearheaded by Cincinnati’s Zack Bruening, Oakland’s Cody Beasley and Seattle’s Connor Casteel. Casteel took home MVP in his third year last season, leading the Seahawks to a 13-3 record. However, a interception-heavy Super Bowl performance may have set the strapping lad on a different course. Can he and the Seahawks recover from their Super Bowl disappointment? Are the Chargers still competitive despite Rivers’ struggles? Will Tom Brady leave us alone for good?

We find out next with the 2018-19 NFL season.

Past Results

2011-12 Super Bowl Champs: Chargers

2012-13 Super Bowl Champs: Steelers

2013-14 Super Bowl Champs: Falcons

2014-15 Super Bowl Champs: Raiders

2015-16 Super Bowl Champs: Chiefs

2016-17 Super Bowl Champs: Packers

2017-18 Super Bowl Champs: Chargers

2018-19 NFL Results

	Sim Result	Real Life Result
NFL MVP	Zack Bruening	Patrick Mahomes
OPOY	Matthew Stafford	Patrick Mahomes
DPOY	Mike DeVito	Aaron Donald
OROY	Lary Crawford	Saquon Barkley
DROY	Tyrone Myers	Darius Leonard
Coach of Year	Jim Schwartz	Matt Nagy
Best Record	Lions (13-3)	Saints, Rams (13-3)
AFC Champ	Raiders	Patriots
NFC Champ	Lions	Rams
SB Champ	Lions	Patriots
Top Passer	Connor Casteel (4,449)	Ben Roethlisberger (5,129)
Top Rusher	Denetri Taylor (1,791)	Ezekiel Elliott (1,434)
Top Receiver	Jimmy Jefferson (1,722)	Julio Jones (1,677)
Sack Leader	Mike DeVito (28)	Aaron Donald (20.5)
Int. Leader	Tavon Austin, Nico Grimble (7)	3-Way Tie (7)

The Sim Season

Coaching Changes

A real coaching shuffle this offseason, including multiple coaches getting the ax after one year.

ARI: Steve Spagnuolo replaces Jeff Milson

BAL: Douglas Franklin replaces Allen Santino

DEN: Frank Peney replaces Tom Coughlin

HOU: Hue Jackson replaces Steve Spagnuolo

JAX: Jack Del Rio replaces Ron Rivera

PIT: Bill O’Brien replaces Ron Edwards (I thought for sure we’d be rid of Bill O’Brien in this timeline)

SD: Ron Rivera replaces Frank Peney (Peney literally just won the Super Bowl. Why did he leave for the Broncos?)

STL: Mike Shanahan replaces Douglas Franklin

WAS: Jeff Milson replaces Mike Shanahan

Retirements

Logan Mankins
Jonathan Vilma
Antonio Gates
Dwight Freeney
Lance Briggs
Roddy White
TOM BRADY
Steven Jackson
Julius Peppers
Sebastian Janikowski
Devin Hester
Richard Seymour
Andre Johnson
Kevin Williams

Roster Moves

The Texans are continually their revolving door of fading veteran quarterbacks, while the Chiefs are making some bold choices to sign Michael Vick and Tony Romo to replace their young playoff QB who left for the Giants. Presumably only one of those washed vets will make the final roster.

Bears sign Ben Roethlisberger, Brandon Marshall, Cliff Avril, Jason Witten
Browns sign Kam Chancellor
Cardinals sign Corey Wootton
Chiefs sign Michael Vick, Tony Romo
Colts sign Greg Olsen, Elvis Dumervile
Falcons sign Dwayne Bowe
Giants sign Edwin James
Panthers sign Cortland Finnegan
Raiders sign Marshal Yanda
Seahawks sign Vince Wilfork, Chris Snee
Steelers sign Terrell Suggs, Vernon Davis, LaRon Landry
Texans sign Jay Cutler
Titans sign Russell Okung
Vikings sign Lamar Woodley

Rookies

Top Five Picks

Minnesota moved up six spots, trading a third to divisional rival Green Bay to get the fourth pick. The Browns, coming off their first halfway-decent season, moved into the top five anyway, trading a second to move from 15 to five.

Eagles select CB Naquan Young, Georgia
Colts select QB Lary Crawford, Notre Dame
Broncos select WR Jibreel Walls, Florida
Vikings select DT Clint Meyers, Missouri
Browns select DE Kyran Coleman, LSU

LSU’s Dakotah Nelson, a 6-foot-6 farm boy, went No. 15, then LSU’s backup quarterback, Benjamin Walker, also went in the first, going 30th to the Dolphins. So LSU had a killer platoon system last year, it seems. No. 2 pick Lary Crawford is an 84 overall and already starting over Kyler McRoy, who disappointed in his first year in Indianapolis.

High-Profile Free Agents Entering Season

A bunch of former starters and former first-round quarterbacks are not on rosters to begin the season.

Mike Vick (cut by Chiefs)
Matt Schaub
Mark Sanchez
Matt Cassel
Eli Manning
Blaine Gabbert
Chandler Waslelewsci

99 Overalls

DT Tyre Myrick, Falcons (has not made Pro Bowl since 2015)
C Maurkice Pouncey, Steelers
DT Ndamukong Suh, Lions
S Jamarkus Cline, Chiefs (zero Pro Bowls)
TE Wes Butrico, Washington (three straight Pro Bowls, 1,100 yards last year)
C Bryce Degner, Lions (two straight Pro Bowls
WR A.J. Green, Bengals
FB Sean Hayes, Vikings (zero Pro Bowls, second-round pick as a fullback)

Top Teams

The Detroit Lions, of all teams, finished with the best record in football at 13-3. They have come on strong lately, making the playoff for the first time in these sims last year, and then Matthew Stafford jumped from an 80 overall to an 84 this year to lead them to the best season in franchise history. Just behind them, the Arizona Cardinals rode a strong defense to 12 wins under new coach Steve Spagnuolo.

As has become commonplace, the Bengals and Zack Bruening were once again the best scoring offense in football, albeit by only one point over the Saints. Bruening is the only lock Hall of Famer thus far among fictional players as he now has two MVPs and a litany of seasons leading Cincy to 400-plus points. The Saints are still rolling under Drew Brees, and the Seahawks, led by last year’s MVP Connor Casteel, bounced back from a disappointing Super Bowl performance to rank third in scoring.

The Cardinals were the class of the league defensively, just ahead of two other playoff teams in the Chiefs and Colts. Arizona also had a strong offense, though, something those other two teams cannot claim.

Worst Teams

Carolina is not far removed from a Super Bowl appearance, and now they have the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft. The league’s second-worst offense and fourth-worst defense will do that to you. The Texans, who dumped Ben Roethlisberger for Jay Cutler, fared little better, winning one more game but scoring the fewest points in the league.

The Titans’ miserable defense kept them from being a playoff team because they were a top-five offense. Going 7-9 with their passing attack while division-champ Indy went 9-7 is a tough pill to swallow. The Steelers, now led by mediocre quarterback Brandon Arnold, were the only other team besides the Panthers and Texans to win fewer than five games.

Top Players

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, in year 10, finally broke through as a legit superstar, throwing 31 touchdowns and just 10 picks while leading the Lions to the NFL’s best record. Of course, Zack Bruening edged him out for MVP thanks to 37 TDs and one more yard. Stafford did, however, take Offensive Player of the Year honors.

Casteel led the way in yards, but his high interception total has to be a bit worrying going forward given the Seahawks lost last year’s Super Bowl because of his turnovers. His production is undeniable, but he may be trending towards Carter Murphy, Tim Alston territory. Of course, Drew Brees led the league in passer rating this year and he threw more picks than Casteel did, so who’s to say?

The other notable name on that list is Brody Cemento, Arizona’s second-year QB who, while not super-high volume, has been very efficient for them. The Cardinals went 12-4 with him under center, so he is looking like a steal as a 2017 second-rounder.

Running Backs

LaCraig Calloway‘s rushing title streak has been broken. New England’s Denetric Taylor snatched the belt from Calloway, running for nearly 1,800 yards and 15 touchdowns. In fact, statistically, Calloway was not even a top-five back this year. Still, the Chargers are running their offense through him, they won the Super Bowl last year and made the playoffs again this year, so he gets the benefit of the doubt as the best back in the league for now.

Also, look at that crazy volume for Matt Forte. It’s a nuts that he ran almost 400 times and only came away with 10 touchdowns. He and Mark Ingram are the only non-fictional backs to crack the top 10 rushers, and he is still cruising along despite now being 33 years old.

Receivers

The Broncos’ Jimmy Jefferson had a huge breakout in year 3. He had 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons, but this jump to 1,722 and 10 touchdowns was something else, even if the Broncos on the whole didn’t reach his level. 2014 No. 1 pick Rafael Fields also had his first truly great season, surpassing 1,000 yards for the first time and leading the NFL with 15 touchdowns. He was named Wide Receiver of the Year for his efforts.

Also, beneath the surface, Leonard Hankerson has put together a Hall-of-Fame career. He amasses 100 catches for the fifth straight year, now has six consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and made his fifth straight Pro Bowl. Carter Murphy may be a turnover machine, but he is feeding Hankerson in bulk.

Defense

Mike DeVito just shattered the NFL sack record at age 34. Twenty-eight sacks is absolutely insane for anyone, let alone for some who had 2 1/2 in his first six seasons combined. DeVito has taken off since 2013, recording five double-digit-sack seasons in six years, three Pro Bowls and now a Defensive Player of the Year.

Tavon Austin is also on a great run, leading the league in picks again and going to his third straight Pro Bowl. He was joined at the top with seven interceptions by Nico Grimble, a former undrafted free agent who made his first Pro Bowl in his sixth season.

Rookie Report

No surprise, Colts quarterback Lary Crawford took home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after leading the once-putrid Colts to a division crown. His numbers were just OK, 19 picks to just 25 touchdowns (shockingly close to Andrew Luck’s year 1 numbers), but no one at any other position stood out enough to unseat him.

Defensive Rookie of the Year went linebacker Tyrone Myers, a second-round pick by the 49ers. He recorded 111 tackles and 13 sacks, so he fit the do-it-all mode that outside linebackers have taken in today’s NFL. Minnesota’s Clint Myers, the No. 4 overall pick, had a strong case as well, recording six sacks and 77 tackles as a nose tackle.

No. 1 pick Naquan Young had an OK season, intercepting two passes and playing every down for the Eagles. No. 3 pick Jibreel Walls was also solid with just under 600 yards and five touchdowns despite catching passes exclusively from Colt McCoy. Browns No. 5 pick Kyran Coleman was the only disappointment. He started all 16 games for the Browns — who just keep drafting defensive linemen high to no avail — but did not record a single sack.

The Playoffs

Seed	AFC	NFC
1	Raiders (11-5)	Lions (13-3)
2	Bengals (10-6)	Cardinals (12-4)
3	Colts (9-7)	Saints (11-5)
4	Bills (9-7)	Washington (10-6)
5	Chargers (10-6)	Vikings (10-6)
6	Chiefs (9-7)	Seahawks (10-6)

Wild Card Round

Colts defeat Chiefs 27-21

Saints defeat Seahawks 31-16

Washington defeats Vikings 31-20

Bills defeat Chargers 41-15

And once again, we will not have back-to-back champions. The Bills, led by Kevin freaking Kolb (who topped the league with 22 picks this year), put 505 yards on the hapless Chargers despite three Kolb interceptions. They rode their stud running back duo of Khalid Chatman and Arione Randall with both running for over 100 yards and a touchdown apiece. Philip Rivers was again abysmal and should probably retire because he stole stole touches from LaCraig Calloway, who ran for 128 and two scores on just 19 carries.

We won’t even have a repeat NFC champ because the Saints took it to Connor Casteel and the Seahawks. Casteel completed just 50 percent of passes while Brees was rock solid, and that proved the difference in what became a blowout late.

The lone lose game came down to a Colts field goal, though it came with three minutes left so it wasn’t overly dramatic. The important thing is rookie Lary Crawford played great with 397 and three touchdowns, just outdueling Tony Romo.

Washington won exclusively because of running back Will Aker. He ran for 202 and three touchdowns, while Carter Murphy completed just 10 passes and had three picks. Fortunately, Corey Williams played almost as poorly for Minnesota so Washington won comfortably.

Divisional Round

Raiders defeat Bills 31-24

Lions defeat Washington 27-17

Colts defeat Bengals 31-12

Saints defeat Cardinals 38-28

This Lary Crawford kid may be something special. He went toe-to-toe with NFL MVP Zack Bruening, and not only did he outplay him, it wasn’t even close. Bruening threw 50 times to Crawford’s 34, but Crawford threw three touchdowns and no picks while Bruening had one each with just 56% completion. The Bengals continue to disappoint every postseason despite great regular seasons.

Detroit, the NFL’s best team, did not play well, but Carter Murphy was again miserable with just 12 completions for 124 yards. And this time, his running back didn’t carry him with 200 yards. Cody Beasley continued his postseason success with a pair of touchdowns, but Oakland came away with the win exclusively because of their fourth quarter. They scored 17 in the final frame, including a pick-six of Kolb, to win by a touchdown.

In the final game, Drew Brees and Brody Cemento played essentially to a stalemate, at least on paper. But New Orleans went 12-for-19 on third downs and 4-for-4 for red zone touchdowns, so they kept drives alive and finished them. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were 4-for-11 on third down and got into the red zone only once. As such, they got down 38-14 going into the fourth, and despite a good quarter, they could not make it back.

Conference Championships

Raiders defeat Colts 27-10

Lions defeat Saints 34-27

The Cody Beasley legend continues. The man usually finds a way to get it done come playoff time, and now he’ll have a shot at his second Super Bowl. Credit to Lary Crawford for making it this far in his rookie season, but he struggled in the limelight with under 50% completion while Beasley went 19-for-33 with a pair of scores. The Raiders also won the turnover battle 3-to-1, a big reason why the game got out of hand in the third quarter.

Detroit, on the other hand, is here for the first time, proving their huge breakout regular season was not a fluke. Stafford was outstanding, throwing for 400 yards, four touchdowns and no picks, outmaneuvering Drew Brees. Detroit outgained New Orleans by 130 yards while also winning the turnover battle and going 5-for-5 in the red zone. All in all, it was a dominant offensive performance by the best team in the league, and they are rewarded with the franchise’s first ever Super Bowl appearance.

Super Bowl

The Lions moving from bottom-feeder to the best offense in football is the craziest story of the season. And now it has culminated in a Super Bowl ring.

Beasley and Stafford both played very well, finishing with ratings over 100 at high volume and neither throwing a pick. Stafford just edged Beasley, however, with 316 yards and four touchdowns to 283 and three. Stafford really put the game out of reach with a huge third quarter, scoring 21 points, 14 of which came on touchdown passes to Calvin Johnson. Oakland actually led at halftime and their offense hung throughout, but the defense let them down. In the end, the difference was Stafford and the Lions’ efficiency on third down (9-for-14), their red zone production (three touchdowns in four trips) and their big-play ability. Two of their three third quarter touchdowns were over 30 yards, including an 80-yard run by Taiwan Favors.

Calvin Johnson made the MVP a somewhat debatable topic, but in the end, Stafford’s performance was undeniable. He made the leap to superstar in year 10 and capped it off with a ring and a Super Bowl MVP.

Lions defeat Raiders 41-26

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