RERUNS: Resimulating NFL History, Episode 4: The 2014-15 NFL Season

I love living in the past and I love drowning in hypotheticals. My favorite thing to explore is the butterfly effect of every individual moment and explore what could happen if certain events never transpired. As such, I thought it would be a fun exercise to run the NFL back to a point in time before everything we know and love about the league today had a chance to come to fruition. But in order to do that, I had to use the ultimate prognosticator in the business: old-ass versions of Madden.

That’s right, we are rerunning the NFL of the last decade. No Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, no Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan and most importantly, no Bill O’Brien running the Texans.

I placed the NFL timeline back to the 2011-12 season for a couple reasons. For one, it resets virtually every one of the league’s top quarterbacks, creating a massive amount of variance, but Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are both already Super Bowl champions in this timeline and trending towards Hall of Fame resumes. But the more significant reason is that Madden 12 is the earliest version of the game I owned. So yes, we are rolling back to XBOX 360 for these simulations. Going back far but not too far to a reasonably advanced system offers a lot of potential futures, but also some logic with regards to player progression and roster moves. I am not sure how far down the road I will be simming, but plan on it at least bringing us to present day.

Up next, the 2014-15 season.

Past Results

2011-12 Super Bowl Champs: Chargers

2012-13 Super Bowl Champs: Steelers

2013-14 Super Bowl Champs: Falcons

2014-15 Results

The Sim Season

Key Address Changes

Roster Moves

• Bengals release Andy Dalton, Jason Peters
• Bills sign Kam Chancellor
• Broncos sign Colt McCoy
• Josh Freeman signs massive contract with Buccaneers
• Buccaneers sign Terrell Suggs
• Chargers sign Eugene Monroe
• Dolphins release Matt Hasselbeck, sign Tony Romo
• 49ers sign John Abraham, Donte Whitner, Michael Huff
• Danny Woodhead signs $19.4 million deal with Jets
• Clay Matthews signs $85.8 million deal with Packers
• Raiders sign Steve Smith
• Rams sign Devin Hester, Emmanuel Sanders
• Ravens sign Julius Peppers
• Steelers release Antonio Brown

Retirements

• Champ Bailey
• Tony Gonzalez
• Brian Urlacher
• Steve Hutchinson
• Santana Moss
• Adam Vinatieri
• Joey Porter (after winning DPOY)
• Carson Palmer

Rookies

Top-Five Picks

The Bengals traded out of No. 5 to move to No. 9 and pick up a third, so Washington moved into the fifth spot. The Bills made history with the first overall pick, opting for a 5-foot-9 wide receiver.

• Bills select WR Rafael Fields, Arizona
• Jaguars select LT Doron Hines, Penn State
• Eagles select LT Isaic Jordan, Texas
• Ravens select DT JeWone Middlebrooks, N.C. State
• Redskins select CB Daquan Fields, Alabama

The first quarterback off the board was Trevor Clark out of Nebraska who went No. 10 to the Titans. Remember that the Titans drafted a quarterback in the first just two years, Tommy Papagianopoulos, who has since been arguably the worst starter in the NFL. Other first-round QBs were Kyler McRoy out of Boston College at 18 to the Cowboys and Anthony Greene to the Patriots at 25. New England is looking to the future with Tom Brady fading the past couple of years.

McRoy is the day-one starter in Dallas since Tony Romo is now in Miami. He is the only rookie starter heading into the regular season. The highest-rated rookies in this class are rated 85: Buccaneers guard Dennis Morgan (12th overall pick), Washington corner Daquan Fields (fifth overall) and Detroit center Bryce Degner (17th overall). No. 1 pick Rafael Fields is an 81 and No. 3 pick Isaic Jordan is an 83. McRoy, the only starting rookie quarterback, is a 78.

99 Overalls

New segment! Here are the players rated 99 overall entering the 2014-15 season:

• Haloti Ngata
• Jon Beason
• Clay Matthews
• Calvin Johnson
• Darrelle Revis
• Philip Rivers

Key Injuries

Confession time. I turned off sim injuries for this season because it was getting a little out of hand. In the previous three seasons, there was not one quarterback who took every snap for his team. Backups were averaging around 100 pass attempts a season, and many times, multiple superstars were missing huge chunks of games. It was hurting the product and making passing and rushing numbers far too unrealistic. So from here on out, the Key Injuries section will not exist.

Top Teams

Only one team finished 12-4: the Oakland Raiders, quarterbacked by Cody Beasley in his first year as a starter. They were a well-rounded team, second in scoring and fifth in defense. Four teams — Eagles, Panthers, Patriots, Bengals — went 11-5. Outside of the Raiders, the only standout team production-wise was the 10-6 Vikings, who averaged a league-best 29 points per game. The Bengals and the Patriots had decent balance but no outlier numbers, and the Panthers’ second-ranked defense carried the way as their offense was exactly middle of the pack.

Worst Teams

Big surprise, the worst team in the league was the 3-13 Browns. They get a little slack for the league’s third-worst offense since last year’s No. 3 pick Tim Alston threw 21 interceptions in his first season as starter, but their defense was also a trainwreck. Still, they were not as bad defensively as the 4-12 Bills who allowed nearly 500 points this season. The Seahawks, still rolling with Ryan Fitzpatrick, also went 4-12, albeit without horrific numbers on either side of the ball. No one else finished worse than 6-10.

Top Players

Removing injuries finally brought some legitimate passing stats to the NFL. Rather than the usual two or three 4,000-yard passers, 2014 had nine, as well as 13 30-touchdown quarterbacks. In a bounce-back season, Tom Brady led the league both in yards and passer rating, throwing for 30 touchdowns and only five picks. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers all also hit the 4,000-yard, 30-TD mark. But the king of passing was Bengals second-year quarterback Zack Bruening, a 2013 fifth-round pick out of Baylor who took off this year. He led all quarterbacks with 37 touchdowns, finished just behind Brady in yards and took home MVP honors. Patriots fans raged about Bruening winning the top prize over Brady, but the Bengals offense averaged three more points a game than New England, so I guess that broke the tie.

Other young quarterback studs included Washington’s third-year starter Carter Murphy, who had 20 picks but also went for 4,000 and 30. Oakland’s Cody Beasley, another former fifth-rounder, also reached 4,000 and 30 in year three.

That does not mean the running backs didn’t put up crazy numbers once again. Twenty-five rushed for 1,000 yards and eight hit 1,500, most of whom were young (read “fictional”) backs. Chris Johnson led the league with over 1,700 yards, but recent top-10 picks Teddy Scrivens of the Cardinals, DeShawn Terrell of the Seahawks and LaCraig Calloway of the Chargers were all over 1,600. For some reason, Steven Jackson was named “Best Running Back” even though Scrivens and Calloway both outrushed him and Terrell finished with more yards and touchdowns. Jackson had about 200 more receiving yards than those guys, to be fair.

A youngster led the receivers as well. Tremaine Jefferson, a third-year Patriot, recorded 1,671 yards, 100 more than second-place A.J. Green. Another third-year receiver, Oakland’s Parker Dunkley, caught the most touchdowns with 16 to go along with 1,285 yards and was named “Best Wide Receiver.”

On defense, J.J. Watt finally stepped into the limelight in his fourth NFL season, leading the league with 18.5 sacks, one more than Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan. However, Kerrigan also finished fifth in total tackles, so he was named Defensive Player of the Year. Nnamdi Asomugha was far and away the top defensive back, recording 10 interceptions.

Rookie Report

Eighteenth overall pick Kyler McRoy took Offensive Rookie of the Year as the only rookie quarterback to start every game for his team. The numbers were pedestrian, — 3,300 yards, 19 touchdowns, nine interceptions — but the voters favored him over Jets third-round running back Donel Haynes, who had over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns. Top pick Rafael Fields finished fourth in voting, catching 52 passes for 706 yards and six touchdowns. Considering he was the first No. 1-selected receiver since Keyshawn Johnson, one would have assumed better stuff from him.

CeJay Watts of the Cardinals emerged as the top rookie on either side of the ball. The fourth-round linebacker recorded 158 tackles, 16 sacks and five forced fumbles, giving Kerrigan a run for his money as Defensive Player of the Year. In fact, he finished third in that voting behind Kerrigan and Asomugha. Though no one else was really in the discussion for Defensive Rookie of the Year, Raiders first-round end Tavaras Savoie had nine sacks to finish second in voting. No. 4 pick JeWone Middlebrooks only played in four games, while No. 5 pick Daquan Fields had a decent, if unspectacular season as a starter for Washington.

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The Playoffs

Wild Card Round

Packers defeat Saints 12-7

Colts defeat Jaguars 20-17

Bengals defeat Jets 41-17

Rams defeat Vikings 24-13

Last year, the Falcons looked completely dominant throughout their playoff run so they became my early pick to win the Super Bowl. After one round this year, the Bengals are earning that prize. League MVP Zack Bruening did not dominate with only 230 yards and four picks, but he threw four touchdowns, three in the first quarter, and got the Bengals up 24-0 nothing before the Jets knew what hit them.

The other games were all more dramatic but less entertaining. New Orleans didn’t score a point until halfway through the fourth quarter (thanks, Drew Brees), the Colts put up 400 yards but only 20 points and the Rams-Vikings had no fourth quarter scoring. The division winners all came away victorious in an uneventful Wild Card Round.

Divisional Round

Raiders defeat Colts 34-19

Rams defeat Eagles 38-27

Patriots defeat Bengals 20-17

Panthers defeat Packers 48-27

The two big headlines from this round are Brady’s revenge on Bruening for stealing his MVP, and the Panthers’ “defense-minded” squad shellacking the Packers. Brady didn’t light the world on fire — he threw 54 times for 289 yards — but he didn’t turn the ball over while Bruening threw two picks. That ended up being the difference as Brady hit Rob Gronkowski for the go-ahead touchdown with a minute left following an interception.

The other three games had good mixes of drama and scoring. The Rams completed a miraculous comeback in the fourth quarter to move on. Down 24-10 entering the frame, they got two touchdowns of over 50 yards from Steven Jackson plus a defensive score and a Sam Bradford touchdown pass, outscoring the Eagles 28-3 in the fourth. The Raiders, meanwhile, simply stonewalled Manning, holding him to 181 yards on 36 attempts. Cam Newton dominated for Carolina, throwing for 244 and three touchdowns and adding another 116 and two scores on the ground. The Panthers were up 34-7 at halftime, so they got to take the foot off the gas a bit.

Conference Championships

Panthers defeat Rams 31-20

Raiders defeat Patriots 41-29

Just as Tom Brady was getting chesty for knocking off one upstart quarterback, another came in and put it on even harder. Cody Beasley, the former fifth-rounder in year one as an NFL starter, is heading to the Super Bowl after 317 yards and four touchdowns on just 32 attempts. He outslung Brady in the fourth, throwing a pair of touchdowns in the final frame to keep the Patriots at an arm’s length. The Raiders were only up 4 entering the quarter, so Beasley’s clutch performance made all the difference.

In the NFC, the Panthers continued their offensive dominance with over 500 yards of offense. Newton was the best football player in the world the last few weeks, and he added to that resume with 409 passing yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers did, however, also get a key pick-six before the half which tied the game at 17. That momentum shift carried Carolina the rest of the way — they outscored the Rams 14-0 in the third and never looked back.

Super Bowl

This year’s Super Bowl was in Tampa, so no strange cold-weather attire from the coaching staff. We did, however, witness a strange incident at the opening coin toss. As the captains met at midfield, Cam Newton and Cody Beasley dapped up. Then both teams suddenly stepped back, and greeted each other again with the very same daps as if they had never greeted each other the first time. I think the NFL is trying to create a surreal atmosphere for this year’s Super Bowl.

Oh, by the way, the Panthers are coached by Mike Tomlin now and the Raiders by Mike Smith who won the previous year’s Super Bowl with the Falcons.

The Raiders set the tone early. On defense, they made Newton uncomfortable — Newton dropped back 11 times in the first quarter, scrambling four times for 20 yards, getting sacked once and completing three passes for 36 yards. The only reason his passing stats were even that good was because of a screen pass that David Gattis took 20 yards for a touchdown. Newton was on the run early and often. On offense, Oakland made big plays to get out ahead. Beasley attempted nine passes which turned into 100 yards thanks to a long reception by Jacoby Ford and 46 yards on two catches by veteran Steve Smith. They got up 10-0, but the aforementioned screen touchdown kept the game from getting too lopsided after one quarter.

Oakland didn’t let Carolina stay close for long, though. I methodical, 6-minute drive ended in Darren McFadden punching in his second score of the game. They followed that up by forcing a punt, handing off to McFadden again and watching him rumble 38 yards for touchdown No. 3.

So Cam started slinging. At first, it worked; he connected with Brandon LaFell for a 46-yard gain. But as the drive was stalling in field goal range, Cam forced a pass on third-and-15 and it was picked. Fortunately, the Panthers were able to stop the bleeding enough to keep the score stagnant at 24-7, but down three scores at halftime put them firmly behind the eight ball.

The Panthers’ first sign of life in a while came when McFadden fumbled near the red zone midway through the third, stalling a promising Raider drive. But as with nearly every other drive, Carolina failed to capitalize and Newton threw his second pick of the game. The Raiders converted that into a field goal, stretching their lead to 20.

Every other Carolina drive from there on out would either be an impotent three-and-out or stalled by a turnover. One drive ended when Newton fumbled as he dove forward to give himself up. He was not touched as the ball kicked out and Oakland recovered.

McFadden added touchdown No. 4 late in the fourth, capping off an all-time great Super Bowl rushing performance. His effort, earning him MVP honors, made the game fairly enjoyable, if completely noncompetitive. McFadden’s final line: 44 carries, 227 yards, four touchdowns.

To add insult to injury, the Panthers missed the dignity-preserving 52-yard field goal in the final minute. Pretty much sums up the NFC’s luck in the last four years, to be honest. On the other end of the luck spectrum is Mike Smith, who has now won back-to-back titles with two different teams.

Raiders defeat Panthers 34-7

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