MLB's 60-Game Season Simmed; 9 Crazy Things We Noticed

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You may have noticed that we love sims around here. With all the questions coming in about what a 60-game MLB season would look like, I decided to try to find out. Using the excellent and ridiculously deep and customizable Out of the Park Baseball ’21 (OOTP), I created the closest analog I could to where we are in 2020.

Zach Greinke Gets Screwed and Chicago Teams Flip Catchers for Big Gains

The Astros acquired Zach Greinke for the stretch run last season. After a mostly solid performance in Houston’s failed effort at winning the World Series, the pitcher and his family were quick to put down roots in sim-Houston.

That story goes on to say the sim-Greinke family had just purchased a luxury penthouse in Houston. This doesn’t stop the sim-Astros from unceremoniously uprooting his family to Chicago in favor of a career backup catcher and the sim-White Sox 8th best prospect later this sim-week.

The White Sox were looking to replace Reynaldo Lopez who they had traded for Tony Kemp and prospects. That they then chose to put Greinke in a bullpen role that would blow out his elbow tells me the sim-Sox decision making skill is properly calibrated to the real life team.

The preseason’s other big trade would see Whit Merrifield go from the sim-Royals to the sim-Cubs for minor league shortstop Kevin Merrill and catchers Meibrys Viloria and Victor Caratini.

Preseason Predictions, Problematic Math and a Pitcher’s Precarious Part Goes Pop

The preseason predictions are in and sim-sportswriters love the big market teams.

In the National League the defending champion Nationals project to dominate the NL East, the NL Central looks like a very tight race, and the Dodgers dominate out west.

Have you spotted it yet?

Taking a look at the AL, the big money trend continues with the Yankees and Red Sox dueling up top in the AL East, a crazy four-team sprint in the Central, and Angels dominance in the AL West.

Sim-Vegas likes the Yankees despite the loss of third starter Masahiro Tanaka to the time-bomb in his elbow finally giving way. I’m not sure if the sim-reporter here is racist or just forgot to explain that Tanaka was speaking without his translator.

So about those totals… if you did the math on the projected standings, which I didn’t think to do, you probably noticed that for some reason OOTP scheduled us with 57 and 58 game schedules. I’ve since tried to set 60-game re-do seasons and keep getting this result, so I’m not sure what’s up. If you know OOTP and how to address this shoot me a message, it’s driving me bonkers.

So, our first big surprise in the 60-game season is that we’re playing slightly fewer than 60 games. Chalk it up to a rainy Fall.

Undefeated Teams Through 10% of the Season

This has never happened in MLB’s 117-year history. The longest undefeated streak to start the season is 13 games, done first by the 1982 Brewers and then by the 1987 Braves. In a 162-game season that amounts to 8% of the season’s total games. The Braves won the NL West and lost in the NLCS in ’82, the Brewers would fall short of the playoffs, finishing third in the AL East. Divisions were weird back then.

In our sim the Rays and Mariners both got out to 7-0 starts, giving them undefeated records for 12% of the ludicrously short season, while the Phillies are over 10% at 6-0.

I was hoping we would see some hot starts to demonstrate how a few random streaks can have a massive impact in such a short season of baseball. It should be interesting to see where these land in the end. That ’87 Brewers team, for example, would go on to hit a 20-3 record before stumbling to lose 12-straight games and 18 of their next 20, because illusory baseball success is incredibly difficult to sustain.

Surprises and Under-performers One Month In

A month into the season, August 21st in our sim-world, things have mostly settled in. The Rays followed their hot start with an 8-11 run dropping to second in the AL East while the Red Sox have gone from 6-1 to 18-8. The upstart Mariners continue to defy expectations, cruising through the AL West to a matching 18-8 and first place, while the race in the AL Central is incredibly tight.

On the senior circuit all three divisions have at least one team within two games of first place, which should be fun to watch. The Brewers and Padres are both under-performing expectations. Milwaukee in particular is a team I feel has an ideal roster construction for a shortened season, so I’m surprised to see them at just 10-13. The Mets were hoping to contend this year, instead they’re in the cellar of the NL East with a 7-16 record, while the Marlins are shocking the world running second in the division and nipping at the Phillies’ heels. The Rockies had a strong August out West and the Dodgers have only been able to keep pace with both teams going 7-3 over their last 10.

Even without expanded playoffs, the Wild Card race in both leagues is going to be nuts.

Texas Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun has delivered in a big way for sim-citizens who have him in their fantasy leagues this year. The bat has finally arrived, mashing 10 home runs over the season’s first month, tying him with the less surprising Miguel Sano and Edwin Encarnacion among AL leaders. All the long balls have resulted in Willie leading the league in RBIs to date, positioning the second-year player as an early MVP contender. The Yankees seem to be struggling to drive in runs despite what must be plenty of opportunity with Gleyber Torres’ .390/.431/.640 slash and Aaron Judge getting on base at a league-leading .439 clip.

On the National League side of things the Phillies are getting their money’s worth in Bryce Harper so far this season. The expensive up and down star is off to a great start leading MLB in home runs with 11 and posting a monstrous .310/.426/.762 line through the first month. The RBI board is surprising given the Nationals 13-13 record. Trea Turner is leading the league with 24 RBIs and Howie Kendrick and Carter Kieboom are also among the league’s top 10 with 20 RBI each.

Everything is looking crazy with pitching, which we can expect in such a short season. In an unheralded sim-signing prior to the start of the season, the Red Sox picked up less-than-journeyman level starter Keyvius Sampson. In 31 MLB appearances coming into 2020, Sampson has a -1.5 WAR to go with his 2-7 record and a 5.38 FIP. In 2018 he pitched well for the Hanwha Eagles, who KBO fans will recognize as the worst franchise in the league. He washed out of the San Francisco Giants minor league system in 2019. In sim-2020 he’s leading the American League with a 1.22 earned run average, is tied for the league lead with several teammates at 4-0 and has 38 strikeouts in 37 innings.

National League pitching has been equally wild so far in our MLB sim. One of my favorite sleeper-starters for 2020 back when things were normal has been getting lit up in our short season so far. Mitch Keller’s 0-4 record and 8.68 era would sink some fantasy teams early, and isn’t helping the Pirates at all here. Journeyman Freddy Peralta is leading the league with a sparkling 0.96 ERA over his 4 starts, could this be his Cy Young season?

Padres Fire Sale and L.A Loads Up for the Stretch Sprint

With an August 31st MLB trade deadline landing before the season even really gets started it’s anyone’s guess as to what will take place. With their season collapsing around them the sim-Padres decided to offload a number of quality veterans that they had been counting on to launch their rebuilt squad. The Angels and Dodgers both took advantage of their less wealthy California neighbors to the south, with the Halos picking up Tommy Pham for prospect outfielder Jordyn Adams and journeyman Brandon Goodwin, while the Dodgers bolstered an already strong bullpen by adding dominant Kirby Yates for a package of four prospects but only one from the Dodgers’ top 30. With the Angels trailing the Yankees by just a half-game for the AL’s second Wild Card, and the Dodgers 1/2 a game up for the same spot in the NL, while tied atop the West with the Rockies, both teams see a clear path to the World Series and are loading up.

Wild September Races and I Finally Remember We Can Add League Leaders to Standings; Eaton Chasing .400

A more complete look at where things stand in the sim MLB as we get into the heat of the pennant race. With every division in the league led by three games or less this is going to be a tight stretch run over the season’s last few weeks.

Not to mention seven-team wide Wild Card races in both leagues…

You might be scanning the MLB statistical leaders wondering if Mike Trout is possibly injured, but he’s just not posting the numbers we typically expect. He’s leading the league in OBP with a .461 mark, but his slash is .269/.461/.567 with just eight home runs and 27 RBIs, making it all the more surprising that the Angels are going for it. The Red Sox Rafael Devers is raking following up his breakout season with a strong campaign, slashing .340/.423/.674 with an AL-leading 42 RBIs. In the National League we have Adam Eaton flirting with .400, leading the league with a .392 clip through 40 games. Meanwhile Bryce Harper continues his assault on the season with 17 home runs and a .294/.424/.706 line.

Another two weeks and we’ve got some significant separation. The loss of Gleyber Torres knocked the Yankees off their pace and took him out of the qualifications for the batting title, which I may or may not have remembered to change. Going into what turned out to be the last week of the regular season we have some very close races still on the board.

The Red Sox and Rays and the Rockies and Dodgers are just a game apart for their respective division championships. The rival Braves and Phillies are playing the NL East out to what looks like our expected conclusion while the hilariously bad Mets have been eliminated from contention with just 18 wins and a .360 winning percentage. Three games separate the remaining divisions, the AL Central is a bit surprising with the Royals staying relevant and the White Sox not living up to some people’s expectations. Out West in the AL the A’s are clinging to the division lead but there are two very good teams on their heels in the Astros and Angels.

As stupid as I think a 60-game MLB season is from a baseball sense, even I have to admit if they can pull this off safely the Wild Card races are going to be a ton of fun. More than half of the American League is still relevant for a playoff spot with a week to go. The NL is a bit more stark by comparison, but we could definitely see teams jump into the playoffs from a few games back, and the tight race at the top should be one to watch.

You Didn’t Think We Came All This Way Without the KBO, Did You? Also Final Standings!

Giving the MLB sim another week’s advancement I expected to have one more narrative block for the last couple games of the season, but instead the window opened to the playoff tree. Our 57/58 game season had run its course without my realizing, but we do have the final standings and stats, so we can see how things went down.

But first, of course I included the KBO’s 144 game season that began on May 5th in this sim! The NPB as well, but the KBO is the one we’ve all been following. A quick look at the playoff ladder tells you what you need to know about the standings and the surprise SK Wyverns. We’ll check back on how this comes out later. I still regret not taking the time to correct the logos and team colors, because I have issues.

Back stateside the final standings shake out with the Rays, Twins and A’s winning their divisions while the Astros and Red Sox locked down the crazy five-way AL Wild Card race. In the NL the Braves, Cardinals and surprising Rockies were division winners, with the Dodgers and Reds pulling into the Wild Card spots.

If you’re scanning the MLB stat leaders you’re not losing it, Miguel Sano came within a few percentage points in average of a Triple Crown season with a gargantuan .349/.417/.764 slash, 26 home runs and 55 RBIs. No NL player would match that monster season, Adam Eaton fell short in his quest for .400 and Bryce Harper was caught in the home run race by Nolan Arenado.

The ridiculous season by Keyvius Sampson rolled on, the pitcher finished 6-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 68 innings. Sampson was robbed in the awards, however, with the Cy Young going to Andrew Heaney who posted an 8-3 2.58 85k 83ip line. Heaney and fellow Los Angeles resident Clayton Keshaw would take both the Cy Young and MVP trophies home in their respective leagues, which honestly couldn’t have left Miguel Sano feeling very sim-happy.

Playoffs & World Series

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2020 KBO champions, the LG Twins! This is a huge outcome for the KBO, the Twins are one of the league’s more popular teams and they feature 41-year-old Yong-taik Park, the KBO’s career hits leader. Park has been a star in the league for more than 20 years, but has never won the KBO championship, and announced prior to the season that this would be his last year. Way to go out as a champ!

MLB saw a classic ALCS go seven games between the Red Sox and Rays, but the playoffs were otherwise a bit flat. The Braves roll through the National League then take down the Rays in five games to reach the mountaintop a few seasons ahead of schedule.

A Big Move and the Biggest Surprise of All

At the end of the season, Miami Marlins owner Derek Jeter shocked the world, announcing that the team was moving north to Jacksonville and becoming the Jacksonville Gold Sox. I desperately hope this happens in real life, just look at the color scheme and fantastic disco style logo.

And in far and away the most surprising move of the sim season, Rob Manfred has decided to forgive and forget, and the first major player from the steroids era has been admitted to the Hall of Fame. Come on down, Barry Bonds!

So, there you have it. If we attempt to play a ridiculous 60-game MLB season, be prepared for things like Cy Young Award winner Andrew Heaney and having to acknowledge all of Barry Bonds’ home runs again. Still, the Wild Card race should be a blast, might be worth it!

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MLB’s 60-Game Season Simmed; 9 Crazy Things We Noticed