Do Colin Kaepernick’s Stats Support That He Should Be On A Team After He Was Functionally Blackballed By The NFL?

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4 years ago

For a man who hasn’t played in the NFL for three seasons, Colin Kaepernick’s name has come up A LOT this week. He spurred on peaceful protests in the NFL during the 2016 season and did not receive a contract offer afterwards. Colin Kaepernick continues to be a hot button topic to people that, even with the recent developments in America, refuse to move on from the anger they felt when he kneeled in peaceful protest during the National Anthem.

“He stunk anyway,” is the popular rallying cry from people who attempt to justify Kaepernick’s lack of inclusion on an NFL roster.

But did he? And, more importantly, how was he compared to his peers?

I went into PFF’s data archives to figure out where Colin Kaepernick ranked for the 2016 season. Did Colin Kaepernick deserve to be in the NFL based purely upon several of PFF’s signature stats that we routinely cite in football analysis? Or are the naysayers and Facebook commenters out there justified in their takes? Akiem Hicks has already chimed in without much ambiguity but here’s what I see.

The 2016 San Francisco 49ers

Colin Kaepernick helmed a 2-14 49ers team in their one and only year under Chip Kelly after he was fired from Philadelphia.

This Niners team was 29th in the league with a 67-graded pass blocking unit by PFF. Their receiving group was ranked 32nd in the league by PFF with a 59 grade. By comparison, the top-ranked Atlanta Falcons receivers were given a 93 grade. The Falcons were headlined by Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, along with a young Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman. The 49ers were led by Jeremy Kerley’s 667 receiving yards with Quinton Patton, Vance McDonald, Garrett Celek and a very poor year from Torrey Smith bringing up the rear.

The Niners’ run game didn’t do much to take pressure off of Kaepernick; they rostered the 27th-ranked run blocking unit with a 67 grade from PFF. Their leading rusher was Carlos Hyde, who wielded a respectable 4.6 yards per attempt as he notched 988 rushing yards in 2016. Colin Kaepernick led the team with 6.8 yards per rush.

The defense didn’t help matters. Their 30th ranked effort by PFF received a 61 grade as they gave up scores on 41% of opponents’ drives. The 30 touchdowns the Niners defense allowed was good for 25th in the league. They were also ranked 32nd in yards allowed per rush and 28th in net yards per attempt in the pass game.

Colin Kaepernick’s QB Rating Under Pressure

A quarterback’s ability to handle blitzes and pressure is a key separator of the good and the bad. Qualified starters in the 2019 season atop the rankings on PFF for QB rating under pressure include, in this order: Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson.

In the 2016 season, Colin Kapernick ranked 17th in the league withh a 75 QB rating under pressure. He was ahead of the following quarterbacks who are still active in the NFL as of last season, along with their respective QB ratings under pressure:

Brian Hoyer 74.3
Robert Griffin III 73
Kirk Cousins 72.9
Marcus Mariota 72.6
Ben Roethlisberger 70.2
Jameis Winston 70
Eli Manning 63.3
Philip Rivers 58.3
Joe Flacco 57.5
Andy Dalton 57.1
Nick Foles 52.6
Blake Bortles 49.7
Ryan Tannehill 49.1
Jared Goff 47.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick 44.7
Cam Newton 44.2
Brett Hundley 39.6
Matt Schaub 39.6
Blaine Gabbert 27.5

It’s a mix of QBs in different portions of their careers but there are a lot of luminaries in that last, including possible Hall of Famers in Philip Rivers and Eli Manning and a then-reigning MVP in Cam Newton.

Colin Kaepernick’s QB Rating In A Clean Pocket

As you might expect with that poorly rated offensive line, Kaepernick didn’t see clean pockets too often. He saw clean pockets 57.5% of the time in the 2016 season, a far cry from the 75.5% of top-rated QB in clean pockets, Drew Brees.

Whether it was due to poor line play or not, Kaep was less impressive in clean pockets. Colin Kaepernick finished with a 98.7 QB rating, 28th ranked out of 68 qualified QBs. Kaepernick finished ahead of the following NFL quarterbacks who were still on active rosters as of last season:

Matthew Stafford 98.3
Russell Wilson 96.4
Jameis Winston 94.4
Eli Manning 94.4
Carson Wentz 94.4
Tyrod Taylor 94.3
Joe Flacco 93.9
Case Keenum 92
Cam Newton 91.1
Blake Bortles 90
Jacoby Brissett 89.8
Blaine Gabbert 82.9
Ryan Fitzppatrick 80
Robert Griffin III 72.4

Colin Kaepernick’s QB Rating On Deep Passes

Even the most staunch Colin Kaepernick hater can likely agree: that 2016 49ers WR corps was awful. Jeremy Kerley as your No. 1 guy won’t put much fear into the hearts of defenses.

Given that, Colin Kaepernick finished 26th in the league in QB rating on deep throws of 20-plus yards with 89.3. Active QBs who finished behind him include:

Cam Newton 87.3
Tyrod Taylor 85.8
Phiilip Rivers 83.2
Aaron Rodgers 82.7
Jared Goff 81.5
Brian Hoyer 79.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 73.7
Jameis Winston 81
Cody Kessler 70.5
Carson Wentz 64.2
Joe Flacco 60.9
Eli Manning 60.8
Jacoby Brissett 57.3
Blaine Gabbert 37.3
Robert Griffin III 32.5
Blake Bortles 17.5

Oh, and Colin Kaepernick’s 89.3 QB rating on deep throws was tied with one player: Ryan Tannehill, the guy who just signed a contract with $91 million guaranteed and $118 million in total value after Derrick Henry carried his team to an AFC title game.

Colin Kaepernick’s Rushing Ability

Despite the rushing ability many QBs in the league show weekly now, there weren’t a lot of QBs who ran with frequency in 2016. Tyrod Taylor led the league with 95 rush attempts for Buffalo, just ahead of Cam Newton’s 90 for Carolina.

Kaepernick was fourth in the league with a nice 69 attempts and more yardage than every QB besides Taylor. Kaepernick had 468 yards to Taylor’s 580. And, as mentioned above, Colin Kaepernick led the 49ers with 6.8 yards per rush. That made him the most efficient rusher at QB as well.

PFF’s grades look positively on Kaepernick in this department too. Kaepernick was their No. 2 graded rusher, just behind Aaron Rodgers who had 99 fewer total yards on nine fewer attempts.

Conclusion

There are other data points that illustrate things both bad and good. Colin Kaepernick had a sky-high 9.8% sack rate, a pocket presence issue, but also one that’s heavily affected by poor receivers, line play and Kaep’s own desire to run. Despite the lack of talent around him, Kaepernick had just a 1.2% interception rate that was good for sixth in the league overall. Many of the other core stats tell a similar up and down story.

Was Colin Kaepernick a world-beater in this 2016 NFL campaign? It’s hard to argue he was, though it’s hard for anyone to look good in a 2-14 season that results in a splashy coach hire fired after one season.

But was he more competent in a variety of ways than other QBs, white and Black, who continue to be employed by the NFL? That seems equally hard to argue. Look at the names on those lists. Look at some of the multiple chances they’ve been given. Kaepernick carries the “stigma” of his protests as well as the ineptitude of that 49ers season and Chip Kelly’s NFL coaching career in a way that’s mostly unfair compared to his own performance.

Particularly in a league that’s come to heavily value rushing upside from quarterbacks, it’s exceedingly difficult to see how Colin Kaepernick hasn’t had a job in the league over the last three seasons. If the NFL wants to make good on its missteps from the past, a team taking a chance on Colin Kaepernick over the Blaine Gabberts (currently signed to Jacksonville), Blake Bortleses (most recently signed to the Rams) and Brian Hoyers (currently competing with Jarrett Stidham for the Patriots’ starting job) seems like a good place to start.

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